高级搜索
杨轩, 曾燕, 邱新法, 朱晓晨. 2023: 基于机器学习算法的多源月尺度融合降水产品在中国区域的检验评估. 暴雨灾害, 42(5): 595-605. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-006
引用本文: 杨轩, 曾燕, 邱新法, 朱晓晨. 2023: 基于机器学习算法的多源月尺度融合降水产品在中国区域的检验评估. 暴雨灾害, 42(5): 595-605. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-006
YANG Xuan, ZENG Yan, QIU Xinfa, ZHU Xiaochen. 2023: Examination and evaluation of multi-source monthly scale fusion precipitation product in China based on machine learning algorithm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 42(5): 595-605. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-006
Citation: YANG Xuan, ZENG Yan, QIU Xinfa, ZHU Xiaochen. 2023: Examination and evaluation of multi-source monthly scale fusion precipitation product in China based on machine learning algorithm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 42(5): 595-605. DOI: 10.12406/byzh.2023-006

基于机器学习算法的多源月尺度融合降水产品在中国区域的检验评估

Examination and evaluation of multi-source monthly scale fusion precipitation product in China based on machine learning algorithm

  • 摘要: 栅格格式降水产品相对于地面气象站观测资料有更好的空间监测能力,但是不同产品性能存在显著差异。本文评估了9种月尺度格栅降水产品TRMM、GPM、CMORPH、CHIRPS、ERA5、ERA5-Land、PERSIANN、PERSIANN-CDR、PERSIANN-CCS在中国的精度,从中择优选取5种较好的降水产品,利用XGBoost、随机森林和多元线性回归3种机器学习算法分别进行数据融合。研究发现,TRMM、GPM、CMORPH、CHIRPS、PERSIANN-CDR 5种产品具有相对较好的精度;在高海拔与干旱区域,降水产品的误差均明显增大。经过机器学习算法融合后,最优的XGBoost算法模型产品相关系数明显提升,均方根误差和偏差明显降低。3种算法各月均表现较高精度,其中XGBoost算法模型产品在夏季表现较好,而随机森林算法模型产品在冬季表现较好,且3种算法模型产品在不同区域均表现较高精度。和融合之前的5种原始产品比较,3种算法模型产品的精度均有提升。经过XGBoost算法融合后的产品在空间上相比较最优的原始GPM产品与气象站点插值产品具有更多的变化和局部降水细节信息。

     

    Abstract: Grid format precipitation products have better spatial monitoring capabilities compared to ground meteorological station observations, but there are significant differences in performance among different products. This article evaluates the accuracy of nine monthly scale precipitation products TRMM, GPM, CMORPH, CHIRPS, ERA5, ERA5 Land, PERSIANN, PERSIANN-CDR, PERSIANN-CCS in China, and selects five better precipitation products from them. XGBoost is used to select the best precipitation products Three machine learning algorithms, random forest and multiple linear regression, were used for data fusion. Research has found that TRMM, GPM, CMORPH, CHIRPS, and PERSIANN-CDR products have relatively good accuracy. In high altitude and arid regions, the error of precipitation products significantly increases. After machine learning algorithm fusion, the optimal XGBoost algorithm model significantly improves product correlation coefficient, and significantly reduces root mean square error and bias. The three algorithms have shown good accuracy in each month, with XGBoost algorithm model products performing better in summer and random forest algorithm model products performing better in winter. Moreover, the three algorithm model products have shown high accuracy in different regions. Compared with the five original products before the fusion, the accuracy of the three algorithm model products has improved. The product fused with XGBoost algorithm has more variation and local precipitation details compared to the optimal original GPM product and meteorological station interpolation product in space.

     

/

返回文章
返回