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童金, 魏凌翔, 张娇, 王东勇. 2016: 安徽省春季暴雨气候特征统计分析. 暴雨灾害, 35(6): 504-510. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.002
引用本文: 童金, 魏凌翔, 张娇, 王东勇. 2016: 安徽省春季暴雨气候特征统计分析. 暴雨灾害, 35(6): 504-510. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.002
TONG Jin, WEI Lingxiang, ZHANG Jiao, WANG Dongyong. 2016: Statistical analysis of climatological characteristics of spring rainstorm in Anhui province. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(6): 504-510. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.002
Citation: TONG Jin, WEI Lingxiang, ZHANG Jiao, WANG Dongyong. 2016: Statistical analysis of climatological characteristics of spring rainstorm in Anhui province. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(6): 504-510. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.002

安徽省春季暴雨气候特征统计分析

Statistical analysis of climatological characteristics of spring rainstorm in Anhui province

  • 摘要: 利用1961—2012年安徽省80个台站逐日降水资料及NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5°逐日再分析资料,对安徽省春季暴雨的气候特征、环流类型等进行了统计分析,并重点讨论了春季暴雨与沿海高度CH500 (定义为120°E,30°N的500 hPa高度,单位:dagpm)的关系,结果表明:(1)安徽省春季暴雨总雨量年际变化较小,年代振荡明显;发生频次空间上基本呈纬向分布,南多北少特征明显,暴雨量分布则较为均匀。(2) CH500可以作为预报安徽省春季暴雨落区的一个重要参照量,CH500偏高时易出现暴雨,但不同月份不同区域暴雨出现的比例有所差异。实际业务中可参照以下CH500阈值做出相应预报或改善:淮北暴雨3月(568,580)、4月(572,584)、5月(576,588);江淮暴雨3月(568,580)、4月(568,584)、5月(568,588);江南暴雨3月(564,580)、4月(564,584)、5月(568,588)。

     

    Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data collected at 80 stations in Anhui province during 1961-2012, and NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data with 2.5°×2.5° resolution, the climatological characteristics and circulation features of spring rainstorm in Anhui were analyzed. In particular, this study puts emphasis on discussing the relationship between rainstorm and coastal height denoted with CH500 (geopotential height on 500 hPa at 120°E, 30°N, unit: dagpm). Results are shown as follows. (1) The total precipitation of spring rainstorm varied small from year to year, and had obvious decadal change for temporal characteristics. For spatial distribution of occurrence, spring rainstorm varied with latitude, basically, decreased from the south to the north with relatively homogeneous average precipitation. (2) CH500 is a key factor to forecasting spring rainstorm. Generally, higher CH500 leads to more spring rainstorms, but the probability of occurrence varies in different months and regions. Thus, the following threshold of CH500 can be used in forecasting operations: Huaibei rainstorm on March (568, 580), April (572, 584), May (576, 588), Jianghuai rainstorm on March (568, 580), April (568, 584), May (568, 588), and Jiangnan rainstorm on March (564, 580), April (564, 584), May (568, 588).

     

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