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唐永兰, 徐桂荣, 万蓉, 廖移山, 闵爱荣. 2016: 近52 a湖北省梅雨期降水的气候变化特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 35(6): 511-520. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.003
引用本文: 唐永兰, 徐桂荣, 万蓉, 廖移山, 闵爱荣. 2016: 近52 a湖北省梅雨期降水的气候变化特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 35(6): 511-520. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.003
TANG Yonglan, XU Guirong, WAN Rong, LIAO Yishan, MIN Airong. 2016: Analysis of climate change of Meiyu precipitation in Hubei Province in recent 52 years. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(6): 511-520. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.003
Citation: TANG Yonglan, XU Guirong, WAN Rong, LIAO Yishan, MIN Airong. 2016: Analysis of climate change of Meiyu precipitation in Hubei Province in recent 52 years. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 35(6): 511-520. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2016.06.003

近52 a湖北省梅雨期降水的气候变化特征分析

Analysis of climate change of Meiyu precipitation in Hubei Province in recent 52 years

  • 摘要: 使用湖北1961—2012年70个站点逐日20—20时降水资料及相应时段入梅、出梅日期和梅雨期强度指数统计资料,通过最小二乘法拟合、滑动平均、趋势系数和气候倾向率分析等方法,从多年变化、空间分布、趋势变化、强度指数等方面,探讨近52 a湖北梅雨期降水的气候变化特征。结果表明:(1)湖北的入梅、出梅日期和梅雨期长度历年差异较大,梅雨期较长但呈减少趋势。2000年为湖北梅雨的转折点,该年之后入梅日期推迟,出梅日期提前,梅雨长度缩短,梅雨期降水呈现弱化的特点。(2)湖北年降水量、梅雨期降水量、暴雨量、暴雨站次数较多,梅年比、暴雨比较高,且历年差异较大。年降水量的年际变化表现为小振幅波动震荡,其他的波动震荡较大且除梅年比外的震荡趋势很一致。(3)梅雨期降水存在明显的区域性和年代际变化。52 a平均特征表明,鄂西南和鄂东为高值区,鄂西北为低值区。1990s和2000s的梅雨期降水量和梅年比分别较其他时段明显偏多、偏高和偏少、偏低,1970s的梅雨期暴雨日、暴雨量较其他时段明显偏少,暴雨比明显偏低。(4)趋势系数和气候倾向率分析表明,鄂东的暴雨比明显增加,湖北大部分站点的年降水量、梅年比、梅雨期降水量、暴雨量、暴雨日在增加,主要位于江汉平原南部和鄂东南,少部分站点在减少,主要位于江汉平原中北部和鄂西南,但趋势均不明显。(5)梅雨强度指数其呈弱增加趋势,其在典型的水涝年份的等级为强或偏强,在典型的干旱年份的等级为偏弱,且等级偏弱的年数最多,为20个。

     

    Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data at 70 stations and data of the onset time, ending time, duration and intensity index of Meiyu in Hubei Province during 1961-2012, by using the least squares fitting, moving average and analysis of the trend coefficient and climate tendency rate, the time variation, spatial distribution, trend change and intensity index are analyzed for climate change of Meiyu precipitation in Hubei Province in recent 52 years. Results can be summarized as follows. (1) The onset time, ending time, duration of Meiyu are quite different during past years, and the latter is long but showed a decreasing trend. The year 2000 is a turning point, after which the onset time is delayed, ending time is in advance, duration is shorten, and Meiyu precipitation weakens. (2) Annual rainfall, rainfall amount, storm rainfall and numbers of station and time of Meiyu are large. The quotient of rainfall amount of Meiyu to annual rainfall and storm rainfall to rainfall amount of Meiyu are high. All of them are quite different during past years. Interannual variability of annual rainfall shows the small-amplitude fluctuations and shocks, others show greater fluctuations and shocks. Their trends are consistent except for the quotient of rainfall amount of Meiyu to annual rainfall. (3) Meiyu precipitation has obvious regional and decadal changes. The average characteristic during the 52 years shows that high values are in southwestern and eastern region of Hubei and low values are in northwest region of Hubei. Rainfall amount of Meiyu is, respectively, more and less, and the quotient of rainfall amount of Meiyu to annual rainfall is, respectively, higher and lower in the 1990s and 2000s than in other periods. Both of storm days and storm rainfall of Meiyu are less and the quotient of storm rainfall to rainfall amount of Meiyu is lower in the 1970s than in other periods. (4) Analysis of trend coefficient and climate tendency rate shows that the quotient of storm rainfall to rainfall amount of Meiyu in eastern region of Hubei significantly increases. Annual rainfall, the quotient of rainfall amount of Meiyu to annual rainfall, rainfall amount, storm days and storm rainfall of Meiyu at most stations have increased mainly in southern region of Jianghan Plain, southeastern region of Hubei. In a small part of stations they have decreased mainly in middle and northern region of Jianghan Plain, southwestern region of Hubei, although all of their trends are not clear. (5) Intensity index has a weakly increasing trend, which is strong in typical waterlogged years and weak in typical dry years. And weak index years are the most which are up to 20.

     

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