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孟晓文, 隆霄, 周国兵, 温晓培, 谢恩泽, 张建宁. 2017: 同化常规资料对重庆地区一次大暴雨过程的数值模拟研究. 暴雨灾害, 36(4): 309-318. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.04.003
引用本文: 孟晓文, 隆霄, 周国兵, 温晓培, 谢恩泽, 张建宁. 2017: 同化常规资料对重庆地区一次大暴雨过程的数值模拟研究. 暴雨灾害, 36(4): 309-318. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.04.003
MENG Xiaowen, LONG Xiao, ZHOU Guobing, WEN Xiaopei, XIE Enze, ZHANG Jianning. 2017: Numerical simulation analysis on conventional data assimilation for a rainstorm in Chongqing. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(4): 309-318. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.04.003
Citation: MENG Xiaowen, LONG Xiao, ZHOU Guobing, WEN Xiaopei, XIE Enze, ZHANG Jianning. 2017: Numerical simulation analysis on conventional data assimilation for a rainstorm in Chongqing. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(4): 309-318. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.04.003

同化常规资料对重庆地区一次大暴雨过程的数值模拟研究

Numerical simulation analysis on conventional data assimilation for a rainstorm in Chongqing

  • 摘要: 利用常规观测资料以及小时观测降水量资料, 对2014年8月31日—9月2日重庆地区一次大暴雨过程进行分析,在此基础上采用中尺度数值模式WRF及其三维变分同化系统WRF 3D-Var将常规探空观测资料同化进NECP/NCAR再分析资料产生初始场,对比分析同化与未同化常规探空资料的模式模拟的降水量分布特征及同化探空观测资料对模式模拟的中尺度系统结构特征的影响。结果表明,此次暴雨的发生是在对流层高层200 hPa南亚高压与高空急流造成的高层辐散、500 hPa大槽靠近以及副热带高压西移这种有利的大尺度环流背景下,对流层低层的西南低涡、切变线、低空急流在重庆地区发生发展的结果。对比分析模式的模拟结果,两次模拟都较好地再现了此次暴雨过程的大尺度环流特征,同化探空观测资料后模拟的降水落区分布及量级得到改善,对暴雨以上量级的降水改进尤为明显。模式初始时刻分析场的增量表明,与此次暴雨过程的形成发展密切相关的大尺度系统(南亚高压、副热带高压)、中尺度系统(低涡、急流)以及水汽输送在初始场同化常规探空资料后均得到了增强,这为对流系统的发展维持提供了更加有利的条件。降水最强时刻强降水区域的垂直结构分析显示,在同化探空观测资料后,模式模拟的散度、涡度、垂直速度以及大气热力结构的强度和高度较未同化探空资料的结果都得到了不同程度的增强,这表明同化探空观测资料改进了模式初始场的分布特征,进而对模式模拟的中尺度对流系统的结构产生重要影响。

     

    Abstract: A synoptic overview of the heavy rainfall event occurred in Chongqing during 31st August to 2nd September was conducted using conventional observations and hourly precipitation data. We also used Weather Forecast Research (WRF) model and its assimilation system 3DVAR to assimilate the conventional radiosonde data into NCEP/NCAR reanalysis to generate new initial fields. The simulations of precipitation's spatial distributions with and without assimilation and the effect on simulating the mesoscale system's structure after assimilating radiosonde data were compared. The results indicates that the heavy rainfall event was the total consequence of southwest vortex, shear line and LLJ developed simultaneously in Chongqing against the large-scale circulation background of divergence in higher level caused by South Asia High and jets at 200 hPa, approaching the trough at 500 hPa and the westward move of the subtropical high. By comparing the simulations with and without assimilation, we found that both simulations could reproduce the large-scale circulation features while the simulation of precipitation area and intensity were improved when assimilated radiosonde data, especially significant for precipitation above the heavy rain magnitude. By analyzing the increment fields with and without assimilation at the initial moment, we also found that large-scale systems (South Asia High, subtropical High), mesoscale systems (vortex and jets) and moisture transport were all strengthened after assimilation, thus can support more favorable conditions for convective system's development and maintenance. Based on the analysis of heavy rainfall area's vertical structure during the most intensified rainfall period, the simulations of divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity as well as intensity and altitude of atmosphere's thermal structure were enhanced in various degree after assimilation, implying that simulations after assimilating radiosonde data can improve the distribution characteristics of initial fields, and have an essential effect on simulating mesoscale convective system's structure.

     

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