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杨晓亮, 尚可, 段宇辉, 郭鸿鸣, 李江波. 2017: 基于高分辨率探测资料的降水相态错报成因分析. 暴雨灾害, 36(6): 535-541. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.06.006
引用本文: 杨晓亮, 尚可, 段宇辉, 郭鸿鸣, 李江波. 2017: 基于高分辨率探测资料的降水相态错报成因分析. 暴雨灾害, 36(6): 535-541. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.06.006
YANG Xiaoliang, SHANG Ke, DUAN Yuhui, GUO Hongming, LI Jiangbo. 2017: Cause analysis of precipitation types forecast failure based on high-resolution observation data. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(6): 535-541. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.06.006
Citation: YANG Xiaoliang, SHANG Ke, DUAN Yuhui, GUO Hongming, LI Jiangbo. 2017: Cause analysis of precipitation types forecast failure based on high-resolution observation data. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 36(6): 535-541. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2017.06.006

基于高分辨率探测资料的降水相态错报成因分析

Cause analysis of precipitation types forecast failure based on high-resolution observation data

  • 摘要: 应用常规高空地面观测、风廓线雷达与地基微波辐射计资料以及NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对2016年石家庄初雪预报失误的原因及降水相态的演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:预报中采用的降雪阈值不能反映云中雪晶形成和增长的条件,提取雪晶下降过程中是否融化的温度阈值时所用的资料精度不高,以上两条是导致其预报失误的原因。风廓线雷达垂直径向速度可辅助判断降水起止及相态变化,降雨时3 km高度以下出现一致向下的径向速度,速度值最大超过1.5 m·s-1;径向速度数值减小到1 m·s-1以下且高度下降到1 km以下,可能预示着降水由雨转为雪。微波辐射计反演的温湿廓线因易对云中雪晶形成增长条件以及雪晶在下降过程中是否融化作出判断,故其可以应用于降水相态转变的临近预报。

     

    Abstract: Using datasets of routine upper-air and surface observations, wind profile radar, ground-based microwave radiometer and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with 1°×1° resolution, we have investigated the causes of forecast failure about the first snow event in Shijiazhuang in 2016 as well as the evolution of precipitation types in the event. The results show that the snowfall threshold used in the forecast cannot reflect the conditions under that the snow crystals form and grow in cloud, and the data used to extract the temperature threshold (whether melt or not) in the process of snowfall does not have high enough accuracy, which leads to the forecast failure. Vertical radial velocity from wind profile radar can estimate the start and end of precipitation and its types. There is a consistent downward radial velocity below 3 km when rain falls; the maximum velocity exceeds 1.5 m·s-1. The precipitation probably changes from rain to snow when the radial velocity is reduced to below 1 m· s-1, and the height falls below 1 km. The temperature profile, which is retrieved from the microwave radiometer, can be used in the nowcasting of the transition of snow and rain because it can estimate conditions under which the snow crystals form and grow, as well as whether they melt or not.

     

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