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连治华, 张建忠. 2019: 暴雨灾害预评估中的降水预报准确度方法设计与应用. 暴雨灾害, 38(1): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.001
引用本文: 连治华, 张建忠. 2019: 暴雨灾害预评估中的降水预报准确度方法设计与应用. 暴雨灾害, 38(1): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.001
LIAN Zhihua, ZHANG Jianzhong. 2019: Method for precipitation accuracy in disaster pre-assessment service of rainstorm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(1): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.001
Citation: LIAN Zhihua, ZHANG Jianzhong. 2019: Method for precipitation accuracy in disaster pre-assessment service of rainstorm. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(1): 1-6. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.01.001

暴雨灾害预评估中的降水预报准确度方法设计与应用

Method for precipitation accuracy in disaster pre-assessment service of rainstorm

  • 摘要: 在暴雨灾害预评估的评价体系中,需要一个度量方法能够准确描述致灾性暴雨的模式降水准确度,将其作为暴雨灾害发生的可能性和严重性的判断依据之一。以暴雨灾害预评估服务为着眼点,设计了一种新的降水准确度计算方法。该方法的主要特点:提高达到致灾性暴雨的大量级降水在评分中的权重,减少小量级降水的权重,并且当模式预报降水与观测降水分别位于公式中致灾性暴雨阈值两侧时,对降水准确度进行惩罚。首先通过理想试验,分析公式的合理性和参数的敏感性。然后利用该方法,针对暴雨个例进行检验分析,通过比较模式降水与观测降水的关系,验证了该方法的合理性及能反映出公式中大量级降水权重大的特性。最后利用该方法通过批量试验对ECMWF模式和NCEP模式的降水准确度进行统计分析和检验,并与TS评分进行比较,验证了降水准确度的合理性。批量试验的降水准确度表明ECMWF模式对暴雨灾害预评估具有更好的指导意义。

     

    Abstract: In the rainstorm disaster pre-assessment service, a model precipitation accuracy that accurately describes the catastrophic rainstorm is needed. In the paper, a new method was designed for calculating the accuracy of precipitation based on the pre-assessment of rainstorm disasters. The main features of the method include:to increase the weight of the large precipitation that hits the severe rainstorm, and reduce the weight of the small precipitation; and punish the accuracy of precipitation when the model forecast precipitation and observed precipitation are respectively located on both sides of the rainstorm threshold in the formula. First, through a ideal test, the rationality of the formula and the sensitivity of the parameters are analyzed. Then the method is used to test and analyze one rainstorm. The relationship between the model precipitation and the observed precipitation is verified, and the rationality of the method and the characteristics of the large precipitation right in the formula are proved. Finally, the method was used to statistically analyze and test the precipitation accuracy of ECMWF model and NCEP model, and compare with TS score to verify the rationality of precipitation accuracy. The precipitation accuracy in batch test shows that the ECMWF model has a better guiding significance for the pre-evaluation service of rainstorm disasters.

     

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