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余田野, 王学良, 袁海锋, 朱传林. 2019: 基于投影寻踪方法的湖北省雷电灾害风险区划. 暴雨灾害, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.012
引用本文: 余田野, 王学良, 袁海锋, 朱传林. 2019: 基于投影寻踪方法的湖北省雷电灾害风险区划. 暴雨灾害, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.012
YU Tianye, WANG Xueliang, YUAN Haifeng, ZHU Chuanlin. 2019: Risk zoning of lightning disaster in Hubei Province based on projection pursuit method. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.012
Citation: YU Tianye, WANG Xueliang, YUAN Haifeng, ZHU Chuanlin. 2019: Risk zoning of lightning disaster in Hubei Province based on projection pursuit method. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 38(3): 291-296. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2019.03.012

基于投影寻踪方法的湖北省雷电灾害风险区划

Risk zoning of lightning disaster in Hubei Province based on projection pursuit method

  • 摘要: 利用湖北省2007-2017年闪电监测与雷暴日观测等数据资料,选取雷暴日、地闪密度、雷电流波头陡度、雷电流强度、大电流密度、小电流密度6个雷电参数作为湖北省雷电灾害风险评价指标;采用投影寻踪方法,构建基于雷电参数的雷电灾害风险评价模型,据此对湖北省雷电灾害进行综合评价与风险区划。结果表明:湖北省雷电灾害可划分为高、较高、中、较低和低5个风险等级,风险等级整体从东至西逐渐降低,东部地区风险明显高于西部地区;较高和高风险区主要位于红安、孝昌、孝南、东西湖、蔡甸、汉南至洪湖一线以东地区;较低和低风险区主要位于襄州、襄城、谷城、保康、兴山、秭归、巴东至五峰一线以西地区;上述以东地区与以西地区之间地带主要为中等风险区,共27个区、县(市)。雷电灾害风险区划结果可为本地开展雷电防灾减灾工作和有效降低灾害损失提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Using the cloud-ground lightning locating data from 2007 to 2017 and the thunderstorm day data from 1961 to 2003 in Hubei, we selected six lightning parameters such as thunderstorm day, cloud-ground lightning density, lightning current wave-head gradients, lightning current amplitude, large current density and small current density as risk evaluation indices of lightning disaster in Hubei province, and then combined them with the projection pursuit method to establish a lightning disaster risk assessment model. Based on this model, we conducted a risk zoning of lightning disasters in Hubei province. The results indicate that the lightning hazards in Hubei province can be divided into five risk levels, i.e., higher risk, sub high risk, medium risk, inferior risk and lower risk. The lightning disaster risk is higher in the east than that in the west, which gradually decreases from east to west. The higher and sub high risk areas mainly locate in the eastern regions of Hongan, Xiaochang, Xiaonan, Dongxihu, Caidian, Hannan and Honghu, while the inferior and lower risk areas mainly distribute in the western regions of Xiangzhou, Xiangcheng, Gucheng, Baokang, Xingshan, Zigui, Badong and Wufeng. The zone between the eastern and western regions mentioned above is mainly a medium-risk zone with a total of 27 districts or counties or cities. The results of lightning disaster risk zoning can provide scientific basis for local lightning disaster prevention and mitigation work for effective reduction of disaster losses.

     

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