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李易芝, 罗伯良, 彭莉莉, 张超. 2020: 2017年6月下旬湖南持续性暴雨动力因子诊断分析. 暴雨灾害, 39(1): 10-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.002
引用本文: 李易芝, 罗伯良, 彭莉莉, 张超. 2020: 2017年6月下旬湖南持续性暴雨动力因子诊断分析. 暴雨灾害, 39(1): 10-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.002
LI Yizhi, LUO Bailiang, PENG Lili, ZHANG Chao. 2020: Diagnostic analysis of dynamical parameters for Hunan persistent heavy rain event in late June 2017. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(1): 10-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.002
Citation: LI Yizhi, LUO Bailiang, PENG Lili, ZHANG Chao. 2020: Diagnostic analysis of dynamical parameters for Hunan persistent heavy rain event in late June 2017. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(1): 10-19. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.002

2017年6月下旬湖南持续性暴雨动力因子诊断分析

Diagnostic analysis of dynamical parameters for Hunan persistent heavy rain event in late June 2017

  • 摘要: 针对2017年6月22日-7月2日发生在湖南的一次持续性暴雨过程,利用全球预报系统(GFS)模式分析场资料对湿热力平流参数、热力螺旋度、热力波作用密度等动力因子进行计算和诊断,分析该持续性暴雨过程中物理量的垂直结构特征,降水背景场的动、热力学性质。研究结果表明:(1)该持续性暴雨过程是高低空急流耦合、贝加尔湖阻高和西太平洋副高稳定维持、充足的水汽输送共同作用造成的。(2)各动力因子对此次降水落区诊断效果良好,尤其是水汽通量散度和热力波作用密度与本次持续性暴雨有比较好的相关性。(3)水汽通量散度和热力波作用密度对该持续性暴雨过程的发展演变均具有一定的预报能力。

     

    Abstract: For a persistent heavy rain case occurred between 22 June and 2 July 2017 in Hunan, dynamical parameters, including the moist thermodynamic advection parameter, thermal helicity and the thermodynamic wave-activity density, were calculated. The vertical structure characteristics of physical parameters as well as dynamic and thermodynamic properties of precipitation background field were analyzed using data obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Global Forecasting System (GFS) model. Results showed that:(1) Sustained storm rainfall case was caused by the coupling of high level jet and low level jet, the maintaining of Baikal Lake blocking high and Western Pacific subtropical high, and rich water vapor transport. (2) All dynamical parameters showed strong signals in the persistent heavy rain area. In particular, the moisture divergence vertical flux and thermodynamic wave activity density were highly correlated with this sustained storm rainfall. (3) Moisture divergence vertical flux and thermodynamic wave activity density are of considerable importance in the diagnosis and prediction of storm rainfall in this region.

     

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