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杨春, 张勇, 张亚萍, 余君, 吴胜刚, 李强. 2020: 近25 a重庆地区小时降水时空分布特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 39(1): 71-80. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.008
引用本文: 杨春, 张勇, 张亚萍, 余君, 吴胜刚, 李强. 2020: 近25 a重庆地区小时降水时空分布特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 39(1): 71-80. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.008
YANG Chun, ZHANG Yong, ZHANG Yaping, YU Jun, WU Shenggang, LI Qiang. 2020: Analysis on the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of hourly precipitation in Chongqing during recent 25 years. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(1): 71-80. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.008
Citation: YANG Chun, ZHANG Yong, ZHANG Yaping, YU Jun, WU Shenggang, LI Qiang. 2020: Analysis on the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of hourly precipitation in Chongqing during recent 25 years. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(1): 71-80. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.01.008

近25 a重庆地区小时降水时空分布特征分析

Analysis on the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of hourly precipitation in Chongqing during recent 25 years

  • 摘要: 利用重庆34个自动站1991-2015年逐小时降水资料,分别从降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次、强降水事件、极大强降水及极端强降水阈值等方面分析了重庆时空分布特征。结果表明:(1)降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次、强降水事件、极大强降水及极端强降水阈值在空间分布上具有一致性,高值区主要分布在东南部与西部,低值区主要位于东北部与中部。(2)降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次及极大强降水在年变化上表现出波动起伏特征,且降水比率相对变化幅度较小,后三者表现出同相位的变化特点。在月变化上,降水比率呈双峰特征,后三者一致呈单峰特征。在日变化上,强降水高频次主要出现在03-05时,低频次主要是13-15时。(3)在强降水事件持续性上,强降水事件持续时间及其降水开始至最强降水时间的空间分布一致:高值区主要集中在东北部与东南部,而低值区主要分布在中部与西部。总体上看,持续时间越长,产生最强降水的时间越延后,且持续时间长的强降水事件主要产生在23时至次日04时。(4)第99、99.5、99.9百分位阈值与广义极值(GEV)分布函数5、10、20、50、100 a重现期阈值及极大强降水观测值在空间分布上与强降水具有一致性。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly precipitation data from 34 automatic stations in Chongqing from 1991 to 2015, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics have been analyzed from the aspects of precipitation ratio, percentage of heavy precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation, heavy precipitation event, maximum heavy precipitation and threshold of extreme heavy precipitation. The results are as follows. (1) The spatial distribution of precipitation ratio, percentage of heavy precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation, heavy precipitation events, maximum heavy precipitation and threshold of extreme heavy precipitation are consistent with each other. The high value areas are mainly distributed in the southeast and west, while the low value areas are mainly located in the northeast and central areas. (2) The annual changes of precipitation ratio, percentage of heavy precipitation, frequency of heavy precipitation and maximum precipitation have shown fluctuations, while the change in precipitation rate is relatively small, and the latter three show the change characteristic of the same phase. On the monthly changes, the precipitation ratio is characterized by a "double peak", while the latter three are consistently characterized by a "single peak". In terms of daily changes, the high frequency of heavy precipitation mainly occurs from 03:00 BT to 05:00 BT in the morning, while the low frequency times are mainly from 13:00 BT to 15:00 BT in the afternoon. (3) In the continuity of heavy rainfall events, the duration of heavy precipitation events is consistent with the spatial distribution of the time from the beginning of precipitation to the time of the heaviest precipitation. The high value areas are mainly concentrated in the northeast and southeast, while the low value areas are mainly distributed in the central and western areas. In general, the longer the duration, the more delayed the time to produce the strongest precipitation, and the long-lasting heavy precipitation event occurred mainly at 23:00 p.m. to 04:00 a.m. in the next day. (4) The 99th, 99.5th, 99.9th percentile thresholds and 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return period thresholds of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution functions and the maximum observed values are all consistent with heavy precipitation in spatial distribution.

     

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