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基于城市暴雨内涝数学模型的福州内涝灾害风险评估

Risk assessment of rainstorm waterlogging disaster based on urban rainstorm waterlogging mathematical model in Fuzhou city

  • 摘要: 以福州市城区地表和明渠河道为主要模拟对象,结合福州市城区高精度地理信息、排水设施、排水运作方式等数据,建立福州城市暴雨内涝数学模型。利用该模型对福州市历史上3次典型降雨过程以及不同重现期降雨造成的城区内涝灾害进行模拟。对模型的模拟结果与实况积水进行评估表明,3次降雨过程的模拟与实况积水深度绝对误差小于10 cm的积水点分别占比为50%、78%、76%。模型对雨强较大的短时强降雨过程,模拟效果稍差,模拟积水比实况积水整体偏小;对长时间、雨强比较平均的降雨,整体模拟效果较好。利用模型对不同重现期降雨下福州市城区内涝灾害风险进行评估表明,模型能够客观反映不同重现期降雨过程下福州市城区内涝灾害风险分布。

     

    Abstract: According to high-precision geographic information, drainage facilities and drainage operation model of urban Fuzhou, the urban rainstorm waterlogging simulation model in Fuzhou was established. The Urban Rainstorm Waterlogging Simulation Model in Fuzhou was used to simulate the waterlogging disaster caused by three typical rainstorm types in Fuzhou history and rainfall cases with different return periods. The simulated and actual values of ponding water depth in three rainfall types were evaluated. The results show that the percentages of water accumulation points with the absolute error between simulated and actual water accumulation depth less than 10 cm were 50%, 78% and 76%, respectively, for the three rainfall types. This model is more capable of simulating accumulated water for the rainfall type of long duration and uniform rainfall intensity than for that of short-term heavy rainfall. The simulated accumulated water was less than the real accumulated water in the rainfall type of short-term heavy rainfall. The model was used to evaluate the risk of waterlogging in Fuzhou city under different rainfall recurrence periods. The results show that the model can objectively reflect the risk distribution of waterlogging in the urban area in Fuzhou under the rainfall in different reappearing periods.

     

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