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赣江流域近50 a来极端降水时空变化特征

Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Ganjiang River Basin in the past 50 years

  • 摘要: 基于赣江流域1964-2013年13个水文站的日降水资料,采用AM抽样和POT抽样相结合的方法,对极端降水序列,选定日最大降水量(RX1)、极端降水量(R95)、极端降水天数(RD95)和极端降水强度(RI95)四个指标,利用Mann-Kendall趋势分析方法、Pettitt变点检验法分别对赣江流域极端降水进行时间变化趋势和突变的分析,并利用普通克里金插值,对各指标进行空间分布的分析。研究结果表明,时间变化上,赣江流域RX1、R95和RD95均表现出一定的增加趋势,但RI95变化不大,各指标在过去50 a没有发生显著突变;空间分布上,RX1、R95和RI95沿着赣江流向从西南向东北增加,而RD95的空间分布没有明显的变化规律,存在多个极大极小值中心。

     

    Abstract: The annual maximum (AM) and peak over threshold (POT) series were used to estimate the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over the past 50 years in Ganjiang River Basin based on the daily precipitation data from 13 hydrometric stations. In this study, four extreme precipitation indices including daily maximum precipitation (RX1), extreme precipitation (R95), extreme precipitation days (RD95) and extreme precipitation intensity (RI95) were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall test and the Pettitt test. In addition, the ordinary Kriging was used to interpolate the extreme precipitation at each rainfall station and the spatial distribution of each index was summarized. The results show that the RX1, R95 and RD95 have a certain increasing trend, while RI95 has not changed much. There are no significant mutations in all four indices during the past 50 years. Spatially, RX1, R95 and RI95 show an increasing trend across the Ganjiang River from southwest to northeast, while spatial distribution of RD95 is irregular and exhibits several extreme centers.

     

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