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孟玉婧, 白美兰, 董祝雷. 2020: 内蒙古山洪致灾阈值与定量化风险评估研究. 暴雨灾害, 39(3): 285-292. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.009
引用本文: 孟玉婧, 白美兰, 董祝雷. 2020: 内蒙古山洪致灾阈值与定量化风险评估研究. 暴雨灾害, 39(3): 285-292. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.009
MENG Yujing, BAI Meilan, DONG Zhulei. 2020: Research on disaster thresholds and quantitative risk evaluation of torrential flood in Inner Mongolia. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(3): 285-292. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.009
Citation: MENG Yujing, BAI Meilan, DONG Zhulei. 2020: Research on disaster thresholds and quantitative risk evaluation of torrential flood in Inner Mongolia. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 39(3): 285-292. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2020.03.009

内蒙古山洪致灾阈值与定量化风险评估研究

Research on disaster thresholds and quantitative risk evaluation of torrential flood in Inner Mongolia

  • 摘要: 以赤峰市半支箭山洪沟为例,采用德国二维水文动力模型FloodArea、广义极值分布函数、情景模拟评估法和统计相关分析等方法,基于气象资料、山洪灾情个例和基础地理信息数据等,对半支箭山洪沟发生的5次山洪过程进行淹没模拟,通过建立淹没深度与面雨量的回归关系,计算不同山洪等级的致灾阈值,并定量评估不同重现期下山洪灾害对人口和GDP的可能影响,结果表明:(1)FloodArea模型对半支箭山洪沟流域有较好的淹没模拟能力,可应用于内蒙古无水文资料山洪沟的致灾阈值确定和定量化风险评估。(2)半支箭山洪沟的山洪致灾时效为4 h,其1-4级山洪的致灾阈值分别为58.5 mm、48.9 mm、39.3 mm和29.7 mm。(3)半支箭山洪沟T年一遇山洪影响的人口和GDP均随着淹没深度的增加而减少,其中影响最大的为0.1~0.6 m。(4)T年一遇山洪影响的人口和GDP分别在淹没深度为0.6~1.8 m和大于0.6 m时随着重现期的增大而增大。当淹没深度大于1.8 m时,5年一遇山洪影响的人口最小,100年一遇影响的人口最大;当淹没深度在0.1~0.6 m时,100年一遇山洪影响的GDP最小,30年一遇山洪影响的GDP最大。

     

    Abstract: In this study, taking the Banzhijian gully in Chifeng City as an example and using German two-dimensional hydrodynamic model called FloodArea, generalized extreme value distribution function, scenario simulation evaluation method and statistical correlation analysis, we performed the submerged simulation of five rainstorm events occurred in Banzhijian gully based on meteorological data, torrential flood cases and basic geographic information, etc. The disaster thresholds of different torrential flood levels are calculated by establishing the regression relationship between the submerged depth and the surface rainfall, and the possible impacts of torrential flood disasters on population and GDP under different return periods were quantitatively evaluated as well. The results showed that:(1) The FloodArea model has a good ability of submerged simulation for the Banzhijian gully, which can be apply to the disaster thresholds determination and quantitative risk assessment of the gully without hydrological data in Inner Mongolia. (2) The time-limitation of the Banzhijian gully is 4 h, and the disaster thresholds of the level 1-4 torrential flood are respectively 58.5 mm, 48.9 mm, 39.3 mm and 29.7 mm. (3) The population and GDP affected by the Banzhijian gully decrease with the increase of submerged depth, among which the largest impact was 0.1-0.6 m. (4) The population and GDP affected by torrential flood in the T years increase with the increase of recurrence period when the submerged depth is 0.6-1.8 m and greater than 0.6 m, respectively. When the submerged depth is greater than 1.8 m, the population affected by torrential flood once every 5 years is the smallest, while the population affected once every 100 years is the largest. When the submerged depth is between 0.1 and 0.6 m, the GDP affected by torrential flood once in 100 years is the smallest, while the GDP affected by torrential flood once in 30 years is the largest.

     

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