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近45 a重庆暴雨气候变化特征分析

Analysis of climate change characteristic of rainstorm in Chongqing in recent 45 years

  • 摘要: 基于重庆市34个观测站1971-2015年的日雨量资料,运用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析等统计诊断方法,分析了重庆市近45 a暴雨日数、强度和贡献率的气候特征及变化。结果表明,近45 a来,重庆地区年平均暴雨日数的地理分布总体呈现从山地向平原递减的趋势,最大值出现在重庆地区东部,两个中心分别位于开州(5.0 d)和酉阳(3.9 d),最小值出现在石柱、江津和綦江(2.2 d)。重庆暴雨日数变化趋势不明显,但有明显的年际和年代际变化。重庆地区年平均和夏季暴雨强度均在增加,重庆地区年和夏季暴雨贡献率均显著增加。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily rainfall data of 34 observational stations in Chongqing from 1971 to 2015, the climatological characteristics and changes of rainstorm days, intensity and contribution rate in Chongqing in recent 45 years are analyzed by using statistical diagnosis methods such as linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The results show that in the past 45 years, the geographical distribution of annual average rainstorm days in Chongqing shows a decreasing trend from mountain to plain. The maximum appears in the eastern part of Chongqing, and the two centers are located in Kaizhou (5.0 d) and Youyang (3.9 d), respectively. The minimum values appeared in Shizhu, Jiangjin and Qijiang (2.2 d). The variational trend of rainstorm days in Chongqing is not obvious, but it has obvious interannual and interdecadal variation. The annual average and summer rainstorm intensity are increasing in Chongqing. The contribution rate of annual and summer rainstorm in Chongqing increased significantly.

     

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