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范江琳, 陈朝平, 曹萍萍, 冯良敏, 王佳津, 刘博. 2022: 四川地区ECWMF模式晴雨预报订正试验研究. 暴雨灾害, 41(1): 58-65. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.007
引用本文: 范江琳, 陈朝平, 曹萍萍, 冯良敏, 王佳津, 刘博. 2022: 四川地区ECWMF模式晴雨预报订正试验研究. 暴雨灾害, 41(1): 58-65. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.007
FAN Jianglin, CHEN Chaoping, CAO Pingping, FENG Liangmin, WANG Jiajin, LIU Bo. 2022: Experimental study on revision of ECWMF clear-rainy forecast in Sichuan region. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(1): 58-65. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.007
Citation: FAN Jianglin, CHEN Chaoping, CAO Pingping, FENG Liangmin, WANG Jiajin, LIU Bo. 2022: Experimental study on revision of ECWMF clear-rainy forecast in Sichuan region. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(1): 58-65. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.007

四川地区ECWMF模式晴雨预报订正试验研究

Experimental study on revision of ECWMF clear-rainy forecast in Sichuan region

  • 摘要: 利用2016—2019年ECWMF模式降水预报及对应时段的观测资料,设计了最优百分位(OP)、最优TS评分(OTS)、概率匹配(PM)、分区OTS和分区PM-OTS融合共5种方案,对数值模式晴雨预报展开了订正试验。结果表明:(1) OP和PM方案的晴雨订正阈值为静态阈值,OTS方案为动态阈值。5种方案的阈值均适用于A区(盆地、阿坝州和甘孜州北部),其中PM、分区PM-OTS融合方案阈值更适用于数值模式湿偏差明显的B区(甘孜州南部和攀西地区)。(2) 各方案对ECWMF模式晴雨预报均有明显的订正能力,24 h时效订正效果最优,B区订正效果优于A区,秋冬季节优于春夏季节。(3) 分区后的订正方案晴雨评分优于分区前,其中分区PM-OTS融合方案评分最优。个例和批量试验表明,A区各方案订正效果相当,B区以PM、分区OTS和分区PM-OTS融合3种方案订正后的雨区分布与实况更接近,其中分区PM-OTS融合方案订正效果最优。

     

    Abstract: Base on the precipitation forecast of ECWMF model from 2016 to 2019 and the observation data, five schemes are designed to carry out revision experiment on numerical model clear-rainy forecast, including Optimal Percentile (OP), the Optimal Threat Score (OTS), the Probability Matching (PM), the sub-district OTS and the sub-district PM-OTS fusion scheme. The results show that: (1) The clear-rainy revised thresholds of OP and PM are static, and that of OTS is dynamic. The thresholds of the 5 schemes are all applicable to Area A(basin, northern Aba Prefecture and northern Garze Prefecture), among which the thresholds of PM and sub-district PM-OTS are more applicable to Area B(southern Ganzi Prefecture and panxi area) with obvious wet deviation of the numerical model. (2) Each scheme has obvious revised ability for ECWMF model clear-rainy forecast. The revised effect of 24 h is the best, and that of Area B is superior to Area B, autumn and winter is better than spring and summer. (3) Revised scheme scores after subdivision are better than before, and the sub-district PM-OTS is the best. Individual cases and batch tests show that the revised effects of the schemes in Area A are comparable, the rainfall distribution in Area B are more close to the observed precipitation after revised of PM, sub-district OTS and PM-OTS fusion schemes, among which the sub-district PM-OTS is the best.

     

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