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郭帷, 谢海涛, 王旭, 海伦. 2022: 1981—2019年北疆暴雨洪涝灾害的时空变化特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 41(1): 101-108. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.012
引用本文: 郭帷, 谢海涛, 王旭, 海伦. 2022: 1981—2019年北疆暴雨洪涝灾害的时空变化特征分析. 暴雨灾害, 41(1): 101-108. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.012
GUO Wei, XIE Haitao, WANG Xu, HAI Lun. 2022: Spatio-temporal variation of rainstorm flooding disaster events in Northern Xinjiang from 1981 to 2019. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(1): 101-108. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.012
Citation: GUO Wei, XIE Haitao, WANG Xu, HAI Lun. 2022: Spatio-temporal variation of rainstorm flooding disaster events in Northern Xinjiang from 1981 to 2019. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(1): 101-108. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.01.012

1981—2019年北疆暴雨洪涝灾害的时空变化特征分析

Spatio-temporal variation of rainstorm flooding disaster events in Northern Xinjiang from 1981 to 2019

  • 摘要: 基于1981—2019年新疆北疆38个县(市)出现的1 394次暴雨洪涝灾害事件,以暴雨洪涝灾害出现次数、死亡人数、倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、死亡牲畜数、农作物受灾面积作为评价因子,采用多种统计学方法,构建暴雨洪涝灾损指数,分析近39 a北疆暴雨洪涝灾害的时空变化特征。结果表明:北疆暴雨洪涝灾害高发区位于博州、伊犁河谷和阿勒泰地区,危害性严重等级以上的暴雨洪涝灾害分布在伊犁河谷和阿勒泰地区,特重等级的暴雨洪涝灾害则集中发生在伊犁河谷的霍城、伊宁、巩留、尼勒克和新源等县;暴雨洪涝灾害出现次数及其造成的死亡人数、农作物受灾面积的月变化呈单峰型,而倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、死亡牲畜数则呈双峰型;年暴雨洪涝灾害出现次数呈显著的线性增加趋势,年度灾损指数呈弱的增加趋势,但在年代际时间尺度上灾害强度不断加强。大雨以上日数和暴雨以上日数是影响北疆暴雨洪涝灾害年际变化的主要气候因素。

     

    Abstract: Based on the 1394 rainstorm flooding disaster events occurred in the 38 counties or cities in Northern Xinjiang from 1981 to 2019, we have analyze the characteristics of spatio-temporal variation of rainstorm flooding disaster events in Northern Xinjiang in recent 39 years, by taking such the evaluation factors as the occurrence numbers of rainstorm flooding disaster events and the death toll, collapsed house number, collapsed shed number, dead livestock number, and disaster-affected crop area to establish the rainstorm flooding disaster loss index using a variety of statistical methods. The results show that most of rainstorm flooding disaster events occur in Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, Ili River Valley and Altay Prefecture. The rainstorm flooding disaster events above the severity level are distributed in Ili River Valley and Altay Prefecture, and those above the extremely severity level mainly occur in Huocheng County, Yining County, Gongliu County, Nilka County and Xinyuan County of Ili River Valley. Monthly variation of the occurrence numbers of rainstorm flooding disaster events and the death toll, disaster-affected crop area shows a single-peak type, while that of collapsed house number, collapsed shed number and dead livestock number shows a bimodal pattern. The annual occurrence numbers of rainstorm flooding disaster events show a significant linear increasing trend, and the annual disaster loss index shows a weak increasing trend. The disaster intensity for the rainstorm flood has been increasing in the inter-decadal time scale. The precipitation days above the levels of heavy rain and rainstorm are the main climate factors affecting the inter-annual variation of rainstorm flooding disaster events in Northern Xinjiang.

     

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