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周伟东, 韩宁, 戴建华, 陈浩, 岳彩军, 张瑞怡. 2022. 上海地区暴雨预警评估及不同天气型暴雨预警差异分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 41(4): 405-412. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.005
引用本文: 周伟东, 韩宁, 戴建华, 陈浩, 岳彩军, 张瑞怡. 2022. 上海地区暴雨预警评估及不同天气型暴雨预警差异分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 41(4): 405-412. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.005
ZHOU Weidong, HAN Ning, DAI Jianhua, CHEN Hao, YUE Caijun, ZHANG Ruiyi. 2022. Investigation of rainstorm warning and its difference under different synoptic conditions in Shanghai[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(4): 405-412. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.005
Citation: ZHOU Weidong, HAN Ning, DAI Jianhua, CHEN Hao, YUE Caijun, ZHANG Ruiyi. 2022. Investigation of rainstorm warning and its difference under different synoptic conditions in Shanghai[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(4): 405-412. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.005

上海地区暴雨预警评估及不同天气型暴雨预警差异分析

Investigation of rainstorm warning and its difference under different synoptic conditions in Shanghai

  • 摘要: 利用2010—2020年上海地区79个自动气象观测站逐小时观测资料和2016—2020年上海中心气象台和上海各区气象台发布的暴雨预警信号资料,采用趋势分析、累积频率等统计方法,分析了上海地区暴雨的时空分布特征,并且在对不同级别暴雨预警信号发布频次、预警时效进行统计分析的基础上,对不同天气形势下暴雨预警时效的差异进行了研究。结果表明: 上海地区6 h雨量标准的暴雨呈现显著上升趋势,其中暴雨蓝色预警上升趋势最为明显;7月6 h雨量标准的暴雨出现了明显的低谷,而1 h雨量标准的暴雨较6月仍然有所增加,显示出7月副高控制下上海地区多短时暴雨的特征。上海午后暴雨一般持续时间相对较短,而持续时间较长的暴雨多出现在上午。暴雨频次在中心城区和浦东靠近黄浦江地区存在大值中心,这可能与城市热岛效应有关。上海地区暴雨预警信号发布时间呈现双峰型变化特征,第一峰值出现在中午12∶00,12∶00—17∶00预警信号发布相对集中,第二峰值出现在早晨06∶00,各级别预警信号持续时间平均为5.9 h。上海地区暴雨预警命中率平均为82.4%,暴雨预警时效平均为1.3 h;副高边缘强对流型暴雨预警时效最短,台风本体或外围螺旋雨带型暴雨较易出现漏报,需要特别关注。

     

    Abstract: Based on the hourly observation data of 79 automatic weather stations in Shanghai from 2010 to 2020 and the rainstorm warning signal data issued by the Shanghai Meteorological Center and District Meteorological Centers from 2016 to 2020, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the rainstorm in Shanghai are analyzed using statistical metrics such as trend analysis and cumulative frequency. On the basis of statistical analysis of the frequency and timeliness of rainstorm warning signals at different levels, the difference of the timeliness of rainstorm warning signals under different synoptic conditions was studied. The results show that the rainstorm meeting the 6-h rainfall standard presents a significantly increasing trend, particularly for the rainstorm with the "Blue " warning. The rainstorm meeting the 6-h rainfall standard is the minimum in July, while the rainstorm meeting the 1-h rainfall standard is mroe in July than in June, which indicates that the frequency of short-time rainstorm in Shanghai is higher in July due to the control of subtropical high. The rainstorm in Shanghai usually lasts relatively short in the afternoon, while the longer rainstorm usually occurs in the morning. The frequency of heavy rainstorm is the highest in the urban area and Pudong near the Huangpu River, which may be related to the urban heat island effect. The release time of early warning signal in Shanghai presents a feature of bimodal distribution. The first peak appears at 12:00, and the release of early warning signals from 12:00 to 17:00 is relatively concentrated. The second peak appears at 6:00 in the morning.The average duration of early warning signals of all levels is 5.9 hours. The average hit rate of rainstorm early warning in Shanghai is 82.4%, and the average rainstorm warning time is 1.3 hours. The severe convective rainstorm at the edge of the subtropical high has the shortest warning timeliness, and the rainstorm near the typhoon body or the peripheral spiral rain belt is easy to be missed, which requires special attention in future.

     

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