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袁凯, 庞晶, 李武阶, 李明. 2022: 深度学习模型对武汉地区雷达回波临近预报的检验评估. 暴雨灾害, 41(4): 458-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.010
引用本文: 袁凯, 庞晶, 李武阶, 李明. 2022: 深度学习模型对武汉地区雷达回波临近预报的检验评估. 暴雨灾害, 41(4): 458-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.010
YUAN Kai, PANG Jing, LI Wujie, LI Ming. 2022: Examination and evaluation of deep learning models for radar echo nowcasting in Wuhan area. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(4): 458-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.010
Citation: YUAN Kai, PANG Jing, LI Wujie, LI Ming. 2022: Examination and evaluation of deep learning models for radar echo nowcasting in Wuhan area. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 41(4): 458-466. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2022.04.010

深度学习模型对武汉地区雷达回波临近预报的检验评估

Examination and evaluation of deep learning models for radar echo nowcasting in Wuhan area

  • 摘要: 基于PredRNN++、MIM、CrevNet和PhyDNet四种深度学习模型,利用武汉地区2012—2019年雷达和降水资料,通过定义回波面积指数,检验评估了四种深度学习模型对武汉地区不同面积雷达回波临近预报的预报性能。结果表明:(1) 随着回波强度的增加,所有深度学习模型的预报能力均迅速降低,一般强度回波的命中率(Probability Of Detection,POD)和临界成功指数(Critical Success Index,CSI)远高于强回波,而一般强度回波的虚警率(False Alarm Rate,FAR)则远低于强回波;(2) 不论是一般强度回波还是强回波,随着面积增大各深度学习模型的POD均上升,FAR降低,因而CSI得以提高,但这种上升和降低的幅度,在一般强度回波下更显著;(3) 无论是一般强度回波还是强回波,同一回波面积之下PredRNN++模型的POD和CSI均最高,CrevNet最低,MIM的FAR均最低,各模型之间的差异在一般强度回波时表现得更加明显,且这种差异性可能主要是由各模型之间不同的内在结构所导致;(4) 从时间演变来看,无论何种面积、何种强度的回波,随着预报时效的增加,深度学习模型的POD均缓慢降低,FAR缓慢增加,因而CSI也缓慢降低,但随着预报时效的延长,降幅和增幅都逐渐变小,60 min之后曲线趋于平缓,但不同面积之间的差异却逐渐增大。

     

    Abstract: Based on four deep learning models(PredRNN++、MIM、CrevNet and PhyDNet), used the radar and precipitation data in Wuhan area from 2012 to 2019 and defined the radar echo area index, we examined and evaluated the forecasting performance of the four deep learning algorithms in nowcasting of radar echo with different echo area in Wuhan. The results are summarized as follows: (1) All models'forecasting ability decreases rapidly with the increase of echo intensity. The POD (Probability Of Detection) and CSI (Critical Success Index) of normal intensity are much higher than those under the strong intensity, while the FAR (False Alarm Rate) is far lower. (2) For both the normal intensity and the strong intensity radar echo, with the increase of radar echo's area all the models'POD increases and FAR decreases. As a result, the CSI improves. But those variation amplitude is more significant under the normal intensity. (3) In all types of echo areas, for both the normal intensity and strong intensity echo radar, the CSI and POD of PredRNN++ are the highest, while those of the CrevNet's are lower. The FAR of MIM is the lowest, but the differences between the models are more obviously under the normal intensity. and those differences may be mainly caused by the different intrinsic structure between each model. (4) Regardless of the area and intensity of radar echo, with the increase of forecast time, the POD of all deep learning models decreases slowly, while the FAR increases slowly. Therefore, the CSI decreases slowly. But with the forecast time extending, both the decline and the increase are smaller. However, the difference between large area and small area increases gradually.

     

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