Risk zoning of lightning disaster in Hubei Province based on improved analytic hierarchy process

Determining accurately the relative importance of evaluation indicators is one of the key technologies for lightning disaster risk zoning. In order to solve the problem of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in judging the relative importance of indices by human experience, we proposed an improved AHP method (IAHP). In addition, using the lightning monitoring data from 2007 to 2020, digital terrain elevation data, soil conductivity data, as well as economic and social data of Hubei, we selected seven parameters: lightning strike density, lightning intensity, altitude, terrain undulation, soil conductivity, population density, and GDP density, as the risk evaluation indices of lightning disaster in Hubei Province, and then established a lightning disaster risk assessment model. Based on this model, we conducted a risk zoning of lightning disasters in Hubei province. The results indicate that the lightning disaster risk in Hubei Province can be divided into five levels, i.e., higher risk, sub high risk, medium risk, inferior risk, and lower risk. The higher and sub high risk areas mainly locate in the plains and low mountain and hilly terrain between the south of Dabie Mountain and the north of Mufu Mountain in eastern Hubei, as well as the most of Jianghan Plain and the transition zone from the western Hubei mountainous area to the Jianghan Plain. The inferior and lower risk areas mainly locate in Enshi, Shennongjia, Shiyan, western Yichang, and southwestern Xiangyang. In other areas of Hubei, most of them are mainly medium risk of lightning disaster. The lightning disaster risk index of each district or county and the lightning disaster frequency show good positive correlation, which reflects basically the potential risk of lightning disaster in Hubei Province.