Application of SVM method to summer clear-rain forecast in Beijing region

Based on precipitation data from conventional observations and the T639 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data, the clear-rainy forecast models are established on Yanqing, Miyun, Fangshan and Guanxiangtai in Beijing by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) statistical method. Independent samples are used to validate the clear-rainy forecast models. The results show that, the clear-rainy forecasted by SVM are superior to that of T639 DMO (direct model output). For the periods from 08 to 20 and 20 to 08, the accuracy of clear-rainy forecast is improved by 20.06% and 9.45%, respectively. The accuracy of clear-rainy forecast is remarkably improved by SVM, which provides an objective way in clear-rainy forecast in Beijing region.