Some thoughts on the weather forecast of severe convective storms

In this paper, based on the Yangtze Jianli "Eastern Star" ferry sinking in 1 June 2015 and experience, in the strong convection forecasting, the major problems in severe convective weather forecasting are lacking monitoring capacity, short of knowledge of the formation mechanism of strong convective weather, short of numerical prediction models, and short of weather forecast methods. In actual operations, a more feasible method of convective weather forecast is: firstly, gathering more comprehensive background know ledge of strong convection weather; secondly, using strong convective weather forecast method in accordance with the ingredients and typing of convective potential weather to determine convective weather zone; at last performing strong convective weather warning and forecast according to radar, satellite data such as the combination of strong convection nowcasting extrapolation method.