Verification and analysis on precipitation forecast of ECMWF model during spring rain period in South China

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model has had a major upgrade since 8th March 2016. Based on routine observational data and numerical forecast data of ECMWF model, the performance of ECMWF precipitation prediction products during spring rain period (from March to May) were tested and analyzed. The characteristics and causes for deviation between precipitation prediction and observation under different atmospheric circulations were summarized. The results show that to a large extent, the convective precipitation products would be the main cause of the prediction deviation during spring rain period in 2016. When South China is controlled by the southwesterly flow of southern trough with little cold air intruding into, the convective precipitation is likely to be overestimated in southwest China, leading to the underestimate of precipitation in the downstream area.