Analysis of thunderstorm warning in northeastern Sichuan based on projection pursuit dynamic cluster model

Based on data of lightning locations and sounding observation data in Dazhou from October 2015 to September 2016, taking temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, precipitable water, K Index, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy and lifting index as thunderstorm warning factors, the projection pursuit dynamic cluster method is used to construct the warning model for thunderstorms in the period. The results are as follows. (1) The critical success index for quantitative evaluation of model prediction results was 72%, and the case mentioned above was identified by this method. (2) Compared to conventional warning methods, this model has advantages of high recognition rate, simple calculation and objectivity. The model provides a new objective method for thunderstorm warning.