Verification of ECMWF ensemble prediction in precipitation forecast of Ta-pieh Mountains area in Anhui Province

Using the precipitation forecast data of 51 members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) from June 1 to August 31, 2015, TS skill score, boxplot and Taylor diagram method are used to research the application effect of precipitation forecast by ECMWF ensemble prediction in the Ta-pieh Mountains area of Anhui Province based on the 1-3 days 12 h precipitation observation data of 12 representative sites in the Ta-pieh Mountains area. The main results are as follows. For the precipitation of ECMWF, the 24 h projected precipitation from 08:00 and the 48 h projected precipitation from 20:00 can be used for reference. In the precipitation classification test, the accuracy of rainfall forecast is more than 70%. There are high miss forecasts for light and moderate rain. The forecast ability of the magnitude of heavy rain is relatively poor. During the large-scale precipitation events, the trend of the forecast precipitation in different forecast times should be paid attention when forecasting the magnitude of precipitation above the heavy rain. Meanwhile, the performance of the individual members for extreme precipitation should be worthy of attention.