Risk zoning of lightning disaster in Hubei Province based on projection pursuit method

Using the cloud-ground lightning locating data from 2007 to 2017 and the thunderstorm day data from 1961 to 2003 in Hubei, we selected six lightning parameters such as thunderstorm day, cloud-ground lightning density, lightning current wave-head gradients, lightning current amplitude, large current density and small current density as risk evaluation indices of lightning disaster in Hubei province, and then combined them with the projection pursuit method to establish a lightning disaster risk assessment model. Based on this model, we conducted a risk zoning of lightning disasters in Hubei province. The results indicate that the lightning hazards in Hubei province can be divided into five risk levels, i.e., higher risk, sub high risk, medium risk, inferior risk and lower risk. The lightning disaster risk is higher in the east than that in the west, which gradually decreases from east to west. The higher and sub high risk areas mainly locate in the eastern regions of Hongan, Xiaochang, Xiaonan, Dongxihu, Caidian, Hannan and Honghu, while the inferior and lower risk areas mainly distribute in the western regions of Xiangzhou, Xiangcheng, Gucheng, Baokang, Xingshan, Zigui, Badong and Wufeng. The zone between the eastern and western regions mentioned above is mainly a medium-risk zone with a total of 27 districts or counties or cities. The results of lightning disaster risk zoning can provide scientific basis for local lightning disaster prevention and mitigation work for effective reduction of disaster losses.