Preliminary study on application of radar auto-warning technology to short-time strong convective weather forecasting in Qinghai

Aimed at the two drawbacks of hail algorithm (88D): the high false acceptance rate (FAR) and the limited revisable parameters,an automatic warning (AW) technology which can distinguish the strong convection cloud and release the warning signal automatically is introduced in this paper. Using the base data of volume scanning of radar, the AW technology is applied to 12 strong convection weather processes in the east of Tibetan Plateau in 2010 and then the data gotten by the AW technology is compared with the data gotten by manual warning based on products of 88D. The results show that the data handling efficiency and warning accuracy of AW are considerably higher than that of manual warning. The AW release time is 25 minutes earlier than the occurrence time of the actual weather on an average. The precipitation accuracy of AW is 91%, FAR is 9% while the precipitation accuracy of manual warning is 75%. In term of hail events, the accuracies of both AW and manual warning are 100%. In conclusion, the accuracy of short-time strong convective weather forecasting and warning would be further improved and the degree of automation of short-time weather forecasting would be developed through putting the AW technology into algorithm (88D) as an assisted technology.